After the storage of corn in the warehouse, the pressure on the city

[ Agricultural Products Network] The corn that has been sold from June to July has been released from the warehouse, which can fully meet the demand. Considering that there is still some surplus grain in the market, and some areas may be staged after the new wheat market, the storage capacity of 18 million tons/month will become the pressure of ZUI in the spot market.

From April to May, the domestic corn market carried out a total of 7 temporary storage auctions. The spot price started a very obvious downward trend since April. In late May, after the temporary storage auction increased to 8 million tons for 4 weeks, the spot market showed a relatively stable trend, and the North China region went out of a small rebound and then fell back. All of this seems to indicate that the spot market will show a steady state, but there may be downside risks in future corn prices.

The actual number of outbound warehouses is less than 30%

I have previously analyzed that under the pressure of policy grain auctions, the corn spot market has shown signs of stabilizing or even rebounding slightly in the middle and late May, which is unbelievable, and the limit of corn subsidies is a factor that keeps prices firm. Under the continuous auction, another factor that can be stabilized in the spot market is the progress of the policy grain.

It is understood that as of June 1, the temporary storage of corn through the auction form actually put more than 38 million tons of corn, and as of May 31, incomplete statistics, the actual delivery of less than 12 million tons. That is to say, the actual corn export from April to May is less than 30% of the market.

There were no signs of a reduction in the auction.

Judging from ZUI's new auction news, the June auction did not release signs of a reduction in investment, and the initial auction volume in June was still as high as 8.01 million tons. Referring to the current auction transaction rate, the actual amount of corn in the temporary storage in June is still more than 10 million tons, which means that the storage of corn in the future will be more than 36 million tons in the future (June to July), and This has not yet calculated the auction sale of the temporary corn in July. In just two months, the market has to bear more than 36 million tons of corn inflows.

Can fully meet market demand

Judging from the current domestic corn demand, according to the average value, the overall demand for monthly feed and deep processing enterprises is around 18 million tons. If the corn that has been sold in the past will be released from June to July, it can fully meet the overall needs of the current market. Considering that there is still some surplus grain in the market, and the possible staged replacement in the southern part of North China after the listing of new wheat, the storage capacity of 18 million tons/month of temporary storage corn has become the ZUI pressure of the spot market.

If we consider the demand reduction caused by the lower part of the deep processing enterprises in Northeast China after July, or the downtime, then the pressure on the corn spot market in June and July will be obvious.

The pressure in North China is relatively small

At the end of the second quarter of the second quarter of last year, the price increase brought by the traditional supply gap period of the corn market will not appear in this year. Under the premise that there is no reduction in the amount of corn stored in the temporary storage, the huge amount of corn that is actually sold will become the pressure that the price of the spot market in the future will be difficult to avoid.

Geographically, although there is still four months to go from the northeast corn market, during this time, the continuous supply of temporary storage corn can fully meet the actual demand of the spot market, and thus inhibit the northeast corn to a greater extent. the price of.

In contrast, the pressure in North China is relatively small. After all, the storage of corn to the North China area requires a fixed transportation cost, and this part of the transportation cost must be transferred to the spot price, and thus to some extent, North China corn. Provide support.

It is difficult to "act" from June to July.

According to a comprehensive analysis, in the future, the corn market will face more than 36 million tons or more of the pressure of the inflow of corn into the market. Considering that the storage corn is concentrated in the three provinces and three provinces in the northeast, from the geographical point of view, the pressure on the northeast corn is large, and the price still has a certain downward space in the future; the second in North China, the fixed freight cost will be fixed. To a certain extent, it provides support for local grain sources in North China. Therefore, although there is downward space for corn in North China in the future, the overall range should not be very large. After the overall quality of new corn is clear, the price trend will be re-selected.

The price of corn in the north and south ports and inland sales areas will follow the trend of northeast corn. The actual price to the factory is based on the price of the auctioned grain and the freight and loss. The author reiterates that the current stable corn market does not mean the arrival of the bottom. Under the huge pressure that the corn market policy grain will continue to flow into the market in the future, the spot price of corn will be difficult to make in the late second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter.

(Article source: Grain and Oil Market News)