US corn and soybeans were severely reduced due to severe drought, and their supply was lower than last year's output, which was also less than the actual consumption of last year. For the first time since 1974, the inventory-use ratio was still at a low level of nearly 50 years.
The October supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed that the US soybean production forecast for 2012~2013 was 2.86 billion bushels, and last year's consumption was 3.16 billion bushels; the US corn production forecast for 2012~2013 was 107.06. Billion bushels last year consumed and exported a total of 12.3 billion bushels.
The United States is the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn and soybeans, and the reduction in supply directly contributes to a substantial increase in prices.
CBOT soybeans have risen nearly 30%
Although the recent Chicago Commodity Exchange (CBOT) soybean and corn futures were mixed, but compared with the data at the beginning of the year, the soybean futures price has risen from 1,200 U.S. dollars/ton at the beginning of the year to 1,550 U.S. dollars/ton, an increase of nearly 30%, while CBOT Corn futures prices have also risen by 15% compared to the prices at the beginning of the year.
The record high temperatures this summer caused the worst drought in the United States since 1956, pushing corn and soybean prices to new highs. Morgan Stanley expects corn prices to rise by 35% this year. The UN’s previous data also showed that global food prices hit the highest level since March of this year due to the increase in the cost of dairy products, food processing, and ranching.
The decline in US soybean production is already set. This has led to a significant increase in global soybean prices this year, which has stimulated increased production enthusiasm in other soybean producing countries. According to the USDA's previous report, Brazil’s soybean production in 2012-2013 is expected to be 81 million tons, and Argentina’s soybean production is 55 million tons, which represents an increase of 14.5 million tons and 14 million tons respectively from the previous year. The combined output of the two countries will increase by as much as 26.5%. The increase has reached a record high.
According to statistics, the USDA lowered its soybean production forecast for this year in the monthly supply and demand report for three consecutive months of 7, 8, and 9, including a forecast of 2.634 billion bushels of soybean production this year, a decrease of 422 million bushels from last year. The decline was 13.8%, the lowest level since 2003; the estimated inventory was 115 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from the previous year, a decrease of 11.5%, the lowest level since 2003.
Although the USDA’s October supply and demand report just released revised up the US soybean production forecast for September, the inventory-use ratio is still the lowest since 1965-1966. In addition, analysts believe that US corn exports will be reduced to the lowest level since 1975, partly because of reduced production, on the one hand because foreign buyers turned to other corn suppliers. The U.S. government expects that the 2012 and 2013 US and global corn inventories will be more intense than previously expected. Global corn inventories will be reduced by 11% from 2011 to 2012, and the total is expected to be the lowest level in six years.
The global soybean supply and demand tension seems to be difficult to ease in the short term. According to USDA's forecast, by the end of 2012~2013, US soybean stocks will fall to 115 million bushels at the end of August next year, the lowest in nearly 10 years. The global soybean supply and demand tension pattern can only gradually improve until the South American soybeans are listed in March and April of next year.
"The supply of corn and soybeans will remain tight, and there is no clear evidence that the current prices reflect the current supply of soybeans very well." Bill Tierney, chief economist at Chicago-based Ag Resource, predicts, "Even next year 2 The harvest of corn in South America during the month is also difficult to alleviate the tight supply of corn."
Soybean within the disk upward momentum is still large <br> <br> from our point of view, China's dependence on foreign demand for soybeans up to 85% of imports, the Commerce Department data show that in September China's soybean imports 385 million tonnes, The arrival of 4.5 million tons in August decreased for the second consecutive month.
When the domestic market is in tight supply, the state reserves the soybean mainly to ease market tensions. Last Thursday, the market did not respond strongly to auctions of stored soybeans. The actual transaction volume was only half of the auction volume. The industry analysts believe that the defensive capacity of soybeans on the domestic market is relatively strong, and domestic stocks are firmer. The decline in auction sales of soybeans last week will result in a significant decline in the inflow of state-owned soybeans into the market.
According to the data, as of last week, the 1301 soybean price of the main contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange has increased by nearly 10% compared with the beginning of the year, but it is still lower than the historical average. The soybean planting area and output in China are still declining, and the upward momentum is still high. .
According to the statistics of China's Ministry of Agriculture, this year's domestic soybean planting area is only 86.82 million mu, which is 13.8% lower than last year, and the planting area has decreased for five consecutive years. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the domestic soybean yield this year will be 112.9 kg/mu, which is 5.3% lower than last year. It is estimated that the domestic soybean production this year will be 9.8 million tons this year, a significant drop of 18.3% from the previous year, the lowest in three years. In terms of demand, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the country's total soybean consumption this year will be 74.39 million tons, which is an increase of 3% from the previous year and will increase for 10 consecutive years.
“In the case that the tight supply situation cannot be effectively mitigated in the next six months, if the overall trend of external soybeans and corn futures continues to rise, it will certainly drive up the price of soybeans and corn futures in the inner market, especially the rising spot prices. The conductive effect will be very obvious.†The head of the research department of a Beijing Futures company told reporters.
The October supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed that the US soybean production forecast for 2012~2013 was 2.86 billion bushels, and last year's consumption was 3.16 billion bushels; the US corn production forecast for 2012~2013 was 107.06. Billion bushels last year consumed and exported a total of 12.3 billion bushels.
The United States is the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn and soybeans, and the reduction in supply directly contributes to a substantial increase in prices.
CBOT soybeans have risen nearly 30%
Although the recent Chicago Commodity Exchange (CBOT) soybean and corn futures were mixed, but compared with the data at the beginning of the year, the soybean futures price has risen from 1,200 U.S. dollars/ton at the beginning of the year to 1,550 U.S. dollars/ton, an increase of nearly 30%, while CBOT Corn futures prices have also risen by 15% compared to the prices at the beginning of the year.
The record high temperatures this summer caused the worst drought in the United States since 1956, pushing corn and soybean prices to new highs. Morgan Stanley expects corn prices to rise by 35% this year. The UN’s previous data also showed that global food prices hit the highest level since March of this year due to the increase in the cost of dairy products, food processing, and ranching.
The decline in US soybean production is already set. This has led to a significant increase in global soybean prices this year, which has stimulated increased production enthusiasm in other soybean producing countries. According to the USDA's previous report, Brazil’s soybean production in 2012-2013 is expected to be 81 million tons, and Argentina’s soybean production is 55 million tons, which represents an increase of 14.5 million tons and 14 million tons respectively from the previous year. The combined output of the two countries will increase by as much as 26.5%. The increase has reached a record high.
According to statistics, the USDA lowered its soybean production forecast for this year in the monthly supply and demand report for three consecutive months of 7, 8, and 9, including a forecast of 2.634 billion bushels of soybean production this year, a decrease of 422 million bushels from last year. The decline was 13.8%, the lowest level since 2003; the estimated inventory was 115 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from the previous year, a decrease of 11.5%, the lowest level since 2003.
Although the USDA’s October supply and demand report just released revised up the US soybean production forecast for September, the inventory-use ratio is still the lowest since 1965-1966. In addition, analysts believe that US corn exports will be reduced to the lowest level since 1975, partly because of reduced production, on the one hand because foreign buyers turned to other corn suppliers. The U.S. government expects that the 2012 and 2013 US and global corn inventories will be more intense than previously expected. Global corn inventories will be reduced by 11% from 2011 to 2012, and the total is expected to be the lowest level in six years.
The global soybean supply and demand tension seems to be difficult to ease in the short term. According to USDA's forecast, by the end of 2012~2013, US soybean stocks will fall to 115 million bushels at the end of August next year, the lowest in nearly 10 years. The global soybean supply and demand tension pattern can only gradually improve until the South American soybeans are listed in March and April of next year.
"The supply of corn and soybeans will remain tight, and there is no clear evidence that the current prices reflect the current supply of soybeans very well." Bill Tierney, chief economist at Chicago-based Ag Resource, predicts, "Even next year 2 The harvest of corn in South America during the month is also difficult to alleviate the tight supply of corn."
Soybean within the disk upward momentum is still large <br> <br> from our point of view, China's dependence on foreign demand for soybeans up to 85% of imports, the Commerce Department data show that in September China's soybean imports 385 million tonnes, The arrival of 4.5 million tons in August decreased for the second consecutive month.
When the domestic market is in tight supply, the state reserves the soybean mainly to ease market tensions. Last Thursday, the market did not respond strongly to auctions of stored soybeans. The actual transaction volume was only half of the auction volume. The industry analysts believe that the defensive capacity of soybeans on the domestic market is relatively strong, and domestic stocks are firmer. The decline in auction sales of soybeans last week will result in a significant decline in the inflow of state-owned soybeans into the market.
According to the data, as of last week, the 1301 soybean price of the main contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange has increased by nearly 10% compared with the beginning of the year, but it is still lower than the historical average. The soybean planting area and output in China are still declining, and the upward momentum is still high. .
According to the statistics of China's Ministry of Agriculture, this year's domestic soybean planting area is only 86.82 million mu, which is 13.8% lower than last year, and the planting area has decreased for five consecutive years. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the domestic soybean yield this year will be 112.9 kg/mu, which is 5.3% lower than last year. It is estimated that the domestic soybean production this year will be 9.8 million tons this year, a significant drop of 18.3% from the previous year, the lowest in three years. In terms of demand, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the country's total soybean consumption this year will be 74.39 million tons, which is an increase of 3% from the previous year and will increase for 10 consecutive years.
“In the case that the tight supply situation cannot be effectively mitigated in the next six months, if the overall trend of external soybeans and corn futures continues to rise, it will certainly drive up the price of soybeans and corn futures in the inner market, especially the rising spot prices. The conductive effect will be very obvious.†The head of the research department of a Beijing Futures company told reporters.
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